Why won't Obama go?

Perhaps Obama is wavering on going to Copenhagen for the climate talks so that he doesn't further alienate the Republicans he wants support from on the Health Care issue. Thoughts?

For the past two years, 192 countries have participated in talks on the pressing issue of climate change, which will culminate in the Copenhagen summit next month. So far, more than 40 heads of state have agreed to attend, to act as negotiators and more importantly to demonstrate a firm commitment to ambitious targets. The growing list includes Angela Merkel, Gordon Brown, Nicolas Sarkozy, and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

But the RSVPs seem lost in the mail for the leaders of the countries considered to be the lynchpins of the deal -- China, the United States, and India. Hu Jintao, Barack Obama, and Manmohan Singh haven't committed yet -- and they should. This summer, Obama indicated he would not attend because Congress has not yet passed climate change legislation. He's since waffled a bit, saying he would if his appearance would close the deal. It's weak tea, and those calling for him to attend include Al Gore and Brazil's da Silva, who used his weekly radio address to implore Obama and Hu to make the trip.

It is less likely that Hu or Singh will attend. Their developing countries have been good negotiators, but reticent to commit to ambitious targets. (China recently called for keeping the Kyoto protocol instead.) If Obama commits, though, they would be a lot more willing -- and that should be reason for the U.S. leader to consider heading across the pond.

In other climate news, the International Energy Agency released its full World Energy Outlook yesterday. One choice doomsday passage:

For every year that passes, the window for action on emissions over a given period becomes narrower -- and the costs of transforming the energy sector increase. We calculate that each year of delay before moving onto the emissions path consistent with a 2°C temperature increase would add approximately $500 billion to the global incremental investment cost...A delay of just a few years would probably render that goal completely out of reach.

GM Chief ousted by Obama

Is this micro-management?

The cold and grey in snowy Detroit is an accurate reflection of the mood here as people wake up to the idea that their industrial landscape has changed again. President Obama has swept aside one of the pillars of the car industry here.

Mr Wagoner was a GM veteran, so on local talk shows his resignation was met with some incredulity that he could be forced out by Washington, with one caller insisting he was the victim of and not the creator of the global recession.

Both in urban Detroit and surrounding rural Michigan there is a deep set conservatism that instinctively dislikes this level of government intervention.

But there is mounting nervousness too. Mr Wagoner had already pledged to cut a fifth of GM's global workforce and close 14 factories. By forcing him to go, President Obama is clearly saying is, that's not enough.

Hyde Park - at the center of the Universe?

Well, there are some who would say that the University of Chicago has always been the center of the Universe, but it's certainly stepped up since the election of our home-town boy.

This afternoon, an an incredibly gorgeous unseasonably warm day in Chicago, I opened the door to the fire escape and say four Marine Corps helicopters flying over.

Is our Prez in town visiting home?

Chant with me.... Obama! Obama!

Here's a link to the full text of the inauguration speech.

Some of my favorite lines:

In reaffirming the greatness of our nation, we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned. Our journey has never been one of shortcuts or settling for less.

It has not been the path for the faint-hearted, for those who prefer leisure over work, or seek only the pleasures of riches and fame.

Rather, it has been the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things -- some celebrated, but more often men and women obscure in their labor -- who have carried us up the long, rugged path towards prosperity and freedom.....

Now, there are some who question the scale of our ambitions, who suggest that our system cannot tolerate too many big plans. Their memories are short, for they have forgotten what this country has already done, what free men and women can achieve when imagination is joined to common purpose and necessity to courage....

As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals. [!!!]....

They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use. Our security emanates from the justness of our cause; the force of our example; the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

We are the keepers of this legacy, guided by these principles once more, we can meet those new threats that demand even greater effort, even greater cooperation and understanding between nations.

Obama and Europe

Another good article from today's FT taking a look at how the relationship between the US and Europe will change with the new administration, and how the US may ask difficult things of its European allies.

With Barack Obama’s arrival in the White House on January 20, differences between the US and Europe are likely to narrow on policies ranging from climate change to detention of terrorist suspects at the US prison camp at Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. As a result, leaders on both sides of the Atlantic – the alliance that won the cold war and which still represents the most significant economic relationship in the world – are looking forward to working together more closely than they have for years.

All the same, Europe is about to discover yet again that America can be an uncomfortable ally. Strobe Talbott, former deputy secretary of state under President Bill Clinton, warns of “a very real risk of excessive expectations”. But he adds: “There will be an eagerness in many capitals around the world for President Obama to succeed ... because of a recognition that these extraordinary, difficult and multitudinous problems are not going to be amenable to solution unless there’s mutual effort and American leadership.”

On issues such as Guantánamo Bay and Afghanistan, the US is likely to make painful requests of the Europeans, requests that will be all the harder to ignore precisely because of the philosophical convergence between the two sides. Difficult strategic decisions await on topics such as Iran, the Middle East and Russia. All the time, Europe and America will have to work closer than ever on the issue Mr Obama identifies as his biggest challenge of all – the economic and financial crisis.

5 Prez's for lunch

Here's a great, funny piece in the NY Magazine imagining the lunch conversation on Tuesday among the former, current and future Presidents. Here's a bit of it:

George W. Bush: Not so easy, is it Obama? Not so simple. Making decisions is hard.
Barack Obama: Look, to be honest, I’m hoping the whole Israel-Palestine thing will be over by the time I’m president. Until then, it’s your problem.
George W. Bush: As if I want to get into this mess two weeks before my term is up? That’s like starting a movie five minutes before bedtime. Sorry, Obama, this is your quagmire now.
Bill Clinton: There are some situations, Barack, even the best of us can’t weasel our way out of. Like getting a—
Barack Obama: Puppy for your kids?
Bill Clinton: Uh, yeah, a puppy. A nice, warm puppy in the middle of the day.

Not sure he gets it (on religion)

One blind spot Obama seems to have is in his choice of religious leaders, from hanging out with Rev. Wright to now picking Rick Warren for the Inauguration prayer. Why would you pick a guy who compares same-sex marriage to pedophilia and incest?!

He gets it (on energy & climate)

I'm delighted to see that Obama has created a special office for climate change, along with not putting oil and politics at the forefront for the Dept. of Energy and the EPA. Here's a nice summary:

Dominated by lobbyists for the oil industry, the task force Vice President Dick Cheney convened early in the Bush presidency laid the groundwork for the administration's dangerously antiquated approach to meeting the nation's energy needs.

Its core recommendation -- to open more federal land to oil, coal and natural-gas development -- largely led officials for the next eight years to ignore conservation efforts and the need to develop clean, alternative energy....

Finally, though, the winds are changing. This week, President-elect Barack Obama named his top energy and environmental team. And fortunately, its members signaled their intention to reshape the nation's energy market so it can kick its dependence on unstable, U.S.-hating, oil-rich countries. They spoke of the urgency to invest in green technology and infrastructure projects to help rejuvenate the economy. And they promised that science -- not political expediency -- will drive their efforts.

Obama's Energy Plan

Hmmm, I liked Obama's refusal earlier in the summer to back the silliness of a summer gasoline tax holiday, but now I'm not sure I'm completely in line with his new thinking. I'm all for weaning ourselves off Venezuelan and Middle Eastern oil within a decade (though I can't imagine that will actually happen.) What I'm no so excited about is the interest in opening up more Alaskan wilderness to drilling for several reasons:

1. There are ample federal lands where oil companies already have concessions and are doing nothing with them
2. We only have so much wilderness - leave it alone!
3. We should be spending that money, yes THAT MUCH money, on conservation technologies and alternative energy technology

Obama Abroad

There have been a couple of articles lately talking about how Barack Obama is seen abroad, especially now that he is the nominee.

Last week, Thomas Friedman wrote a piece called Obama on the Nile, discussing how Egyptians see Obama. They're stunned that an outsider could "allowed" to win the nomination. In Egypt, a Copt or a Shi'ite could never expect to become president. They're also pleased that someone with familiarity with Islam might be running the US, unlike the present clueless crowd.

Today, an article in the International Herald Tribune describes how blacks and Africans in France are finding hope in Obama's success. France has never thought it had a race problem in the way the US knows that it does - until a few years ago when the black and Arab kids in the suburbs of Paris exploded into riots. If you're of African or Arab descent in France, the glass ceiling is very low and those who can leave for England or elsewhere.

Ultimately, I think it's really interesting that the rest of the world cares about our politics in a way that we don't care, or know about any one else's. I suppose Americans knew when Blair left and Browne came in, and we noticed the election that brought in Sarkozy, but we didn't think about it very deeply. The rest of the world notices and cares about our politics.

Obama & Henry V

If you've been following the speeches of Barack Obama lately, talking about being on the cusp of history, see if you hear echoes of Shakespeare's Henry V St. Crispin's Day speech.

"This day is called the feast of Crispian:

He that outlives this day, and comes safe home,

Will stand a tip-toe when the day is named,

And rouse him at the name of Crispian.

He that shall live this day, and see old age,

Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbours,

And say 'To-morrow is Saint Crispian:'

Then will he strip his sleeve and show his scars.

And say 'These wounds I had on Crispin's day.'

Old men forget: yet all shall be forgot,

But he'll remember with advantages

What feats he did that day: then shall our names.

Familiar in his mouth as household words

Harry the king, Bedford and Exeter,

Warwick and Talbot, Salisbury and Gloucester,

Be in their flowing cups freshly remember'd.

This story shall the good man teach his son;

And Crispin Crispian shall ne'er go by,

From this day to the ending of the world,

But we in it shall be remember'd;

We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;

For he to-day that sheds his blood with me

Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,

This day shall gentle his condition:

And gentlemen in England now a-bed

Shall think themselves accursed they were not here,

And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks

That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day"