Saturday, January 30, 2010

Davos - Big Oil

The folks gathered at Davos don't think that a cap and trade bill will be passed in the US in the next six months (and the odds of it being passed in the run-up to the mid-term elections are non-existant.)

As world leaders gather to discuss economic problems during the Davos talks, energy execs are calling for a new peak in oil production, and others cite bleak hope for any global climate deal.

Davos, a Swiss ski resort, is the location of the World Economic Forum, which runs through Jan. 31.

At a dinner on alternative energy, about 100 were in attendance, and when asked to raise their hands if they thought a U.S. climate bill would pass Congress before June, no one raised their hand, reports Foreign Policy. About 60 of those in attendance were Americans.

That view is contradicted by Duke Energy CEO Jim Rogers, who said that he still expects cap and trade to take shape in the U.S., reports Reuters. Rogers said that the Democrats’ loss of a seat in Massachusetts was far from the death-knell, that instead a stronger, more bipartisan approach to climate legislation may emerge.

Tony Hayward, CEO of BP, said that there is a “supply challenge” for the oil industry that will necessitate an extra 15 million barrels of oil a day over the coming 20 years, reports the Telegraph. The world currently is producing about 84 million barrels a day. While demand for oil is fading in the U.S. and Europe, it is rising rapidly in Asia.

Hayward said that natural gas extracted from shale or methane reserves is a “game changer” in the U.S. energy market... [environmentalleader.com]

Friday, January 29, 2010

Purple Pictures


These are for Anny since I can't join you this afternoon.

The Carbon Debate

Well, things are moving along, with or without Congress. You know it's real when the SEC gets involved.

The ultimate fate of carbon policies may be up in the air. But utilities and industrial enterprises are still under pressure to report their climate-related activities to investors.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has voted 3-2 along party lines to force companies to consider their potential exposure to climate change when it comes to filing their financial statements. While the position is one that the Obama administration has advocated, its genesis formed a few years earlier as investor and environmental groups joined hands to petition the body for uniform rules.

"The transition to a carbon-constrained economy is underway, and public access to material information concerning the risks and opportunities that companies face, and their means of addressing those risks and opportunities, is vital to investors," writes the California Public Employees' Retirement System.

The group, which asked the SEC more than two years ago for guidance, says that disclosure should include corporate policies and governance structures related to climate change as well as a tabulation of the registrant's current and forecasted greenhouse gas emissions. As such, investors need to know what the potential financial risks may be along with any climate change-associated litigation. [energycentral.com]

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Ahh!


Here is a beautiful slide show of Greece by National Geographic. Just thought these could bring light to your winter day.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

10 Global Leaders to Watch

Newsweek and the Eurasia Group have compiled a list of the 10 global leaders to watch in 2010 and while some of them are obvious (Obama, Putin), others are names that are new to me, such as Olli Rehn (the European Commissioner) or Ashfaq Kayani (Pakistan's top military officer.)

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Building, not Re-Building in Haiti

Haiti's infrastructure and economy were so poor even before the earthquake that building from the ground up seems the right way to go [foreignpolicy.org]:

In Haiti, neither relief nor reconstruction will be enough: Restoration should not be the goal. The earthquake is not the first natural catastrophe that Haiti has faced. In 2008, four hurricanes wreaked devastation. Since 1994, five major natural catastrophes, an average of one every three years, have hit Haiti's population centers. Worse, these spikes of disaster have punctuated a long-term downward drift. To exit from this spiral, relief is not enough: A coordinated and targeted multibillion dollar Haiti fund now has to bring real hope of change to the country's youth.

Crucially, the fund's mission would not be reconstruction, but paving the way for lasting change. This means spreading opportunity and generating jobs in urban centers less vulnerable to storms, floods, and seismic activity. It means communicating clear targets and progress daily to a public in need of good news. It means modernizing agriculture so farmers can earn a decent living. The promise of food and shelter in Port-au-Prince might otherwise perversely attract rural migrants from the impoverished Central Plateau, adding to a drain on resources and further diminishing local food production at a time when it is most needed. Meanwhile, existing development plans must be scaled up to the new realities and swiftly set into motion.

Over the past year, Haiti has emerged as a country that holds real economic potential in areas as diverse as tourism, light manufacturing, biodiesel, and agriculture. Strategic investments in these sectors will ensure that Haitians can better help themselves once the humanitarian relief has moved on.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Anti-Christian as well as anti-American?

I was thinking about the underpants bomber and his choice of targeting the US on Christmas day. This struck me as having an anti-Christian message, in addition to the obvious anti-Americanism. It makes me wonder if there is anti-Christian, as distinct from anti-American, rhetoric in al-Qaeda and Islamic messages. If so, what are the implications for Christian and other religious minorities in Muslim-majority countries? Should we expect an up-tick in anti-Christian violence to come? For example, in Egypt, where 10% of the population are Coptic Christians, 6 Copts were killed on Coptic Christmas Eve in early January. I wonder if there's a study or a watch group that counts episodes of religious violence. Does anyone know?

So, I've looked it up and found that someone has beat me to the punch on writing about this, but only by a few days.

Here's an excerpt from an article that appeared in The Guardian just 5 days ago:

Violence against Christians as representatives of the "crusader west" is also an aspect of what French author Gilles Kepel has described as the far bigger civil war, or fitna, raging within the Islamic world itself.

Yet hostility also arises, in a fundamental sense, from Muslim perceptions of western aggression against Islam, be it the war in Afghanistan, domineering western economic and cultural behaviour, attempts to ban veils, offensive cartoon caricatures of the prophet Muhammad, airline and immigration profiling, or systemic, unchecked and arguably worsening discrimination and harassment of Muslim minorities living in western nations.

To have a chance of overcoming this widening gulf, the west may have to put its own house in order first. One proposed path is wider adoption of Karen Armstrong's new Charter for Compassion, a "spiritual document for the world", whose guiding idea is that while almost every religion has a history of intolerance, all have traditions of compassion that rise above hatred.

For faithful believers of all descriptions, the charter offers a golden rule: "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you."

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Chicago's debt to Haiti

I was walking along Michigan Avenue last night and passed by a new statue of the founder of Chicago, Jean-Baptiste DuSable, a Haitian. He built a trading post at the confluence of Lake Michigan and the Chicago River.

In its hour of need, Chicago should make a visible contribution in recognition of our connection.


Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Funny Eggs

One man's story of frying his first egg. Read the whole thing on Salon.com.

It was not until after graduating college that I found myself entering that strange, downmarket neighborhood of the house called the kitchen to do anything besides light a cigarette off the stove. The place was mainland China, where I was teaching English. Cholera had descended on the city, leading police to close the restaurants most popular with Westerners. Rather than brave the more modest noodle and dumpling houses, which in general tone resembled the sort of barrio body shop that deals strictly in cash, I lived on peanuts, which were grown locally and sold for about 10 U.S. cents per pound. For variety, there was watermelon, tea and a type of dry biscuit whose name in English -- Fancy Smell -- appeared helpfully on the package beside an image of Shou Xing, the Chinese god of longevity.

Monday, January 11, 2010

What makes a terrorist?

Why would a wealthy and educated young man like Umar Farouk Abdulmatallab, the underpants bomber, want to become a terrorist? [hat tip: Caroline]

Former CIA case officer Marc Sageman has made one of the most thorough analyses of al-Qaeda networks ever conducted. He assembled more than 500 profiles of individual terrorists, their personal characteristics and motivations, how they were recruited and how they are organised.

What he discovers is that terrorists are most likely to be motivated not by disadvantage but by a sense of moral disgust.

He sets out four stages by which this radicalisation normally happens.

It is sparked when the individual reacts to stories of Muslim suffering around the world with moral outrage. Some of those who feel outraged will progress to the second stage, in which they interpret that suffering in the context of a wider Manichaean war between Islam and the West.

Of those who take that view, a minority will progress to the third stage, in which their smouldering resentment will be fuelled by bad personal experiences in western countries, such as discrimination, inequality or just an inability to get on despite good qualifications.

Of those who undergo these three stages, fewer undergo the fourth, in which the individual joins a circle of friends which becomes like a family closed to the outside world, which shuts out the critical thinking which might challenge the radical worldview. They read, listen to and watch only material which stokes their view of the world and prepares them for action and, in some cases, the murder of innocents.

Why does all this matter? It matters because we cannot beat the radicalisation which leads to terrorism unless we first understand it. [Kennedy School of Government, Harvard]

Friday, January 8, 2010

Another Top 100 List

This time it's 100 things to watch for 2010, mostly marketing and business trends:

3. Alternative Measures of Prosperity
France’s Joie de Vivre Index, initiated by President Nicolas Sarkozy, is intended to provide a better assessment of well-being than the classic measure of economic health, the GDP. Look for more countries or companies to embrace alternative measures of prosperity, such as the Triple Bottom Line of people, profits and planet.

4. Alternative Metals in Jewelry
With gold prices volatile in recent years, Asian jewelry makers are turning instead to precious metals like palladium and titanium. China’s imports of palladium have been rising steadily; look for more jewelry manufacturers to choose it over gold.

5. Bacon Everywhere
Bacon is being spotted in everything from cocktails (made with bacon-infused liquor or the new Bakon Vodka) to desserts, including bacon-and-egg ice cream at the famous Fat Duck in the U.K., a bacon chocolate bar from Vosges Haut-Chocolat and Lollyphile’s maple-bacon lollipop.


#5 is right on - I was given a bacon dark chocolate bar as part of a Christmas present. Haven't quite had the nerve to taste it yet, though.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

New Year reminder

A week into the new year, it's good to be reminded of the opportunity before us (you can mentally substitute "person" for "man" in the following quote - I did):

Be always at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let each New Year find you a better man.
-Benjamin Franklin

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Yemen


I've always been attracted to the pictures I've seen of Yemeni cities, like this one from foreignpolicy.com. The underpants bomber got his training here and it is one of the poorest and least literate countries in the Arab world. A 2007 figure for unemployment in Yemen was 40%!

The largest Yemeni population in the US is around Detroit. Strange that that was the underpants bomber's target.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

100 Global Thinkers

Foreign Policy magazine has come up with its first ever list of the top 100 Global Thinkers. The first two are Bernanke and Obama, which is perhaps predictable. The third one is a name I've never heard before! Zahra Rahnavard. Who is that? She is the wife of Iranian opposition leader Mousavi and was the brains behind his campaign and the Green Revolution. The governor of the People's Bank of China comes in at #9, and the editor of Wired magazine at #24.

I encourage you to check out this list. It's very interesting.

Saturday, January 2, 2010

Green Wall

China built its famous Great Wall to keep out marauders. Now, millennia later, a "Great Green Wall" may rise in Africa to deter another, equally relentless invader: sand.

The proposed wall of trees would stretch from Senegal to Djibouti as part of a plan to thwart the southward spread of the Sahara, Senegalese officials said earlier this month at the UN's Copenhagen climate conference...


Trees are almost always formidable foes against encroaching deserts, said Patrick Gonzalez of the University of California, Berkeley's Center for Forestry.

That's because stands of trees act as natural windbreaks against sandstorms, and their roots improve soil health—especially by preventing erosion. ...

Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo first proposed the idea of a desert-blocking wall in 2005, and it was approved by the African Union in 2007.

All 11 countries that would house the Great Green Wall have pledged to help fund the project.

But the wall has been slow to break ground: Of the 4,350 miles (7,000 kilometers) it needs to cover, only about 326 miles (525 kilometers) have been planted so far, all within Senegal.

In Copenhagen, President Wade emphasized that he has made the wall a priority, and he has already asked scientists working on the project to choose species hardy enough to survive in arid conditions without maintenance. ..

More than 70 percent of Africa's poor depends on farming, according to the IPCC.

But drought, desertification, and other climate-related disasters are forcing many farmers to abandon their lands, spurring a heavier flow of immigrants out of central and North Africa.

The 9.3-mile-wide (15-kilometer-wide) wall of trees would improve the surrounding, now-degraded soils, allowing farmers to again grow crops and more easily raise livestock in the region.

Senegal also plans to dig rainwater reservoirs along its portion of the wall—virtual lifesavers in a region where rain falls only three months out of the year, supporters say....

The gigantic tree barrier would also trap some atmospheric carbon dioxide, a potent greenhouse gas, and produce a refuge for native animals and plants.

Some of the trees themselves may become valuable crops.

The native acacia senegal tree, which is to be a staple plant in the Great Green Wall, produces gum arabic, a main ingredient in consumer products such as cosmetics and soft drinks.

Farmers could collect the sap and even sustainably harvest some of the wood to make tools or produce charcoal, Senegalese environment advisor Djeng said.

A solution to many problems at once. I love these. [nationalgeographic.com]